El Niño Breaks Pacific Ocean Temperature Record as Scientists Warn of Extreme Intensity

Paris (AFP):  Sea surface temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean reached a record high in September as the current El Niño event continued to intensify, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The service said temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, a key indicator used to monitor El Niño, reached 29.70 degrees Celsius last month, surpassing the peaks recorded during the strong El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016.

Copernicus said the record highlighted the exceptional intensity of the current event. However, it cautioned that it was too early to conclude that this El Niño was the strongest ever recorded, noting that long-term global warming has raised ocean temperatures and can influence comparisons between past and present events.

A new index adopted by Copernicus that accounts for warming across tropical oceans also indicated that the current event had not yet surpassed previous El Niño episodes in overall strength. Japan’s weather agency, meanwhile, reported on Friday that El Niño conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record.

The latest figures also showed that global average sea surface temperatures reached 21.05 degrees Celsius in September, exceeding the previous September record of 20.92 degrees Celsius set in 2023.

Globally, September was the second-hottest on record, with average surface air temperatures reaching 16.27 degrees Celsius, or 1.63 degrees above the pre-industrial average.

Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said the world was experiencing another period of months with temperatures exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold above pre-industrial levels, adding that an intensifying El Niño could prolong this trend into 2027.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.

The United Nations warned in September that the 1.5-degree target would be exceeded within the coming years. Buontempo said the timing and duration of any overshoot would depend on future action to curb global warming.

El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern that raises sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and alters atmospheric circulation, winds and rainfall patterns worldwide. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

Scientists continue to monitor the current event for its potential effects on global temperatures and regional weather patterns in the months ahead.